Notations On Our World: On the US Primary Season (The Day After #Iowa)

As we noted last night in our newsflash, Ted Cruz won Iowa over Donald Trump.    It was not too unexpected with the ground game and the mix of voters that Ted Cruz appealed to.  The switch now turns to New Hampshire.

What was also of note is the third place finish by Marco Rubio and he noted in this in his campaign message that was sent out earlier:

Mike , last night was amazing. All of our hard work leading up to the Iowa caucuses paid off. I'm thrilled with our success there, and you should be too.   make no mistake: The results in Iowa were just the beginning. "Marcomentum" swept Iowa, and next it's going to take over New Hampshire. In fact, I'm already on the ground in New Hampshire to keep up the energy before next Tuesday's primary. Let me explain. Mike , my opponents are going to try to ignore my showing in Iowa. They will increase their relentless attacks in the hopes that we will not put up a fight and fade into the distance. And that could not be further from the truth. Let's show them just how real it was. Tens of thousands of Iowans stood up and voted for a better future and a New American Century, and this is just the start! Mike , the only place I am going is the White House next January. I will not stop fighting   This is going to be a long race. Iowa isn't the end; it's the beginning. And I need your help to ensure we have the funds needed to reach every voter in EVERY state. I hope I have your support for the next ten months -- and the next four years! Marco Rubio Republican Candidate for President P.S. Our showing tonight was strong, but we need to be stronger. We need to ramp up our success and that begins with your support right now.   It was also of note as we went to press that Hillary Clinton was just declared the winner of the Iowa Caucus and her campaign (and the campaign manager placed calls to suppoters) sent this out: Mike -- Our team had a historic win in Iowa last night, and I am so proud of every last one of you for being part of it. Now that the first contest of this campaign is over, here's what I know: We've got a real fight on our hands, and we're all going to need to pitch in to win this nomination. We face an uphill battle in New Hampshire -- Senator Sanders has home field advantage, and he's already outspent us by more than $2 million on television there. But I know this, too, Mike: We have the strongest team in this campaign, and we have what it takes to win this nomination and win the White House. Thank you, Hillary Our team is having fun as our on-going assessment continues....

An #Outsider Newsflash (Late Breaking Developments): On the Virtual Beat in the #IowaCaucus 2016 .....

We have been assessing the returns out of Iowa and all reports coming in are projecting Ted Cruz to be the winner of the Iowa Caucus despite a late apparent surge in the polls by Donald Trump.      The latest is noted below from the Des Moines Register; 

LATEST CONTESTS

IOWA CAUCUS (D) | RESULTS 

85.9% reporting

50%

Hillary Clinton

% reflects del. strength

49.33%

Bernie Sanders

% reflects del. strength

0.59%

Martin O'Malley

% reflects del. strength

IOWA CAUCUS (R) | RESULTS 

84.53% reporting

27.72%

Ted Cruz

0 del.

24.42%

Donald Trump

0 del.

22.96%

Marco Rubio

0 del.

The ground game by Ted Cruz seems to have worked.    How this will translate into wins in subsequent wins is going to be interesting as Ted Cruz' national support is questionable.     Marco Rubio also remains standing with 23%.

 Mike Huckabee on the Republican side and  Martin O'Malley on the Democratic side have already suspended campaigns and other may follow.     Trump also will face some interesting headwinds as well.   

Interesting times indeed.....

An #Outsider Newsflash (Special Edition): On the Virtual Beat As #Iowa Votes

As the World Awaits Iowa, we wanted to report on this to get a window into the process that gained prominence during the 1976 Presidential Campaign:

Watch live streaming video from therealnews at livestream.com

We look forward to assessing this over the ensuing days.  We wanted to leave you with this very perceptive thought from the ever-eloquent Geoff Colvin at Fortune as the entire pundit class will be on the prowl throughout the night and tomorrow--what is clear is that a few of the second tier candidates will have some decisions to make after tomorrow:

Much of the world will be obsessed with the Iowa caucus results tonight, and rightly so. We’re talking about choosing someone for the world’s most powerful and important leadership job. My plea is that, after months of media hype, we all be informed consumers of the news, aware of what the results tell us and don’t tell us. Most people have no idea what a weird, squirrelly, convoluted process tonight’s3,362 caucuses really are; in fact, most people don’t know the meaning of the numbers that are reported. As you settle down in front of the TV or computer, keep a few key realities in mind: -The numbers don’t mean what you think. At the Democratic caucuses, attendees don’t vote. They indicate the candidate they support by going to different corners of the room. If a candidate attracts fewer than 15% of the attendees, that candidate’s supporters must move to one of the larger groups. Then, as the Associated Press explains, “Once the groups are determined, the number of ‘votes’ is determined by running the number who support each candidate through a formula that determines final votes based on a county-by-county analysis of Democratic performance in the last governor and presidential elections.” Got that? The number of “final votes,” which is the number reported to the media, is actually the number of delegates who will represent each candidate at a district or county convention. This year, since Martin O’Malley probably won’t make the 15% threshold in most precincts, and with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders drawing almost equal support, how the O’Malley supporters break for the other two will be crucial. But that’s a number we’ll never know. Attendees at the Republican caucuses do vote, usually by paper ballot, and those results are reported. But in past years it has sometimes taken days or weeks for the numbers to be gathered. In 2012, for example, the TV networks reported on caucus night that Mitt Romney had won. Turned out two weeks later that Rick Santorumhad won. For this year the Republicans collaborated with Microsoft to create an app (available to both parties) that enables caucus organizers to send results to party headquarters instantly. Whether they’ll use it remains to be seen. There have been years in which some precincts never reported results at all. -The participants aren’t average people. Voting in a regular primary election is pretty easy; it usually takes a matter of minutes, and polls are open for 12 to 15 hours. But Iowa caucus-goers must show up at a specified time (usually 7 p.m.) and be willing to spend the evening. By the way, much of Iowa faces a 100% chance of snowtonight, 5-8” in Des Moines, for example. Caucus-goers, an atypically committed bunch in general, will have to be super-committed this year. A great deal of a candidate’s success reflects his or her ability to organize cars and buses for bringing attendees to caucus sites and back. -The results tell us a little but not a lot. As noted, Santorum won in 2012 but came nowhere near winning the nomination. Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 but soon flamed out; John McCain, that year’s eventual nominee, skipped the Iowa caucuses entirely. Bill Clinton skipped Iowa in 1992 and became president. Watching election results is America’s favorite spectator sport, so let’s all have funtonight. But Iowa isn’t a typical state, and its voting procedures are nothing like what voters do elsewhere. In interpreting this year’s great leadership story, let’s keep the Iowa outcome, whatever it may be, in perspective.