A "Thought 4 the Week" As a New Week Dawns...//10 Ways to Leave a Legacy | All Pro Dad

A new week dawns...and for America, a new era has begun:  Barack Obama's Second Term.

Everyone has their "challenge" to work to leave a legacy.    I reflected upon this and view these as quite timely as we all think about our own: 10 Ways to Leave a Legacy | All Pro Dad

2013 Has Begun in Earnest: Reflections in "Outsiders"

Link: www.350.org

Welcome to another year here in "Outsiders".

I wanted to begin with a pictoral retrospective of the historical context of "Outsiders". It has been quite a year that has seen profound change in the United States and around the World.

2013 has begun in earnest. As I write this, a war has been raging on in Mali with French Troops having been sent by a Socalist President to forestall the overthrow of the current Government of Mali as it battles the salafist rebels. Mali is a former French Colony that has been beset by insurrection. This was led, in large measure, due to the returning fighters who were in the employ of the Libyan Madman Gaddafi.
 Beyond Mali, Algeria also was the scene within the past week of violence, yet again. Terrorists took over a Gas Plant and took hostages. By the time the dust settled, a number of hostages were dead and the terrorists were also killed in the process. The World was not happy that the Algerians took it upon themselves to solve this problem. The problem has been that the current Algerian Government has been in the midst of an insurgency too after the Army crushed the moderate islamists in the 90's. Challenges continue to abound throughout Africa--including the powerhouse of the Region: South Africa.

The Middle East also continues to be in a state of flux. Iran is getting ready for Presidential Elections. However, the leading internal opposition figures inside the Country continue to be under house arrest. Recently, the wife of Mir Hossein Moussavi's father passed away. Mr. Mousavi and Dr. Rahnavard were given leave for a day from being under house arrest. Recently, Nasrin Soutodeh, the human rights lawyer and activist was given leave from prison after two years for 72 hours for a visit with her family after a heavy bond. The daughter of the former President, Mr. Rafsanjani, continues to be under detention at Evin Prison for anti-regime actitivies. Mr. Rafsanjani's son was given bail after posting his house' grant deed as bail. What I found quite amazing was the courage of Khomein's Grand Daughter who happens to be married to the brother of Iran's Former President, Mohammad Khatami. She spoke out against the dangers faced by the Country as it battles crippling sanctions. Moving onward to Syria, the killing continues with no end in sight. I found it amusing that the Syrian Foreign Minister called for negotations after having been part of a so-called Government that has basically destroyed the country. I could not understand how a university could be bombed as students were sitting for exams. When a Government is losing control of its' own Capital, it is only a matter of time.

Moving onward to Europe, the economy continues to be the talk of the continent. Germany is slowing down, Spain continues to suffer and the Greeks are suffocating from the collapse of their economy. Britain has been limping along as it battles continued austerity. Britain, though, has received a battering due to the snow that has crippled the country which is threatening to throw it into a triple recession. This is as it is facing a Scottish independence vote in 2014 and it recently had to deal with a raging Irish unionist protest movement that underscores the undercurrents of unification that would happen. As this dynamic continues onward, Cameron has said that he wants to remain Prime Minister as the Labor Party continues to remake itself to be ready to take the coalition on in a few years time.

Moving onward from Europe to Latin America, two pivotal countries have been at the forefront of my observations over the past 30 days. In Venezuela, Hugo Chavez has not been seen for a number of weeks though as he continues to battle cancer. The Venezuelan Supreme Court allowed him to delay his formal swearing in and the National Assembly granted him a leave of absence as his Vice President took over the running of the Country. The future of Venezuela is an open question--especially as it sits atop one of the largest reserves in the World. Beyond Venezuela, there is Brazil. The former President, Lula, apparently is slowly being dragged into the expanding corruption investigation that has seen a number of his former aides convicted. It has not directly impacted the current President of Brazil just yet. But the prospects of an unstable Brazil is of profound concern.

The United States, though, is where the action is. As I write this, Barack Obama and Joe Biden are due to be sworn in for President. The ceremonial swearing in, though, will occur on Monday in Washington. The second term of Barack Obama is bound to be just as momentous and challenging as the first one. The U.S. was able to avert the fiscal cliff. The Republicans have also already noted that they would allow a vote on the lifting of the US National Debt since it appears that they seem to realize that they better learn to govern and take a different tact that they have.

As the second term begins, the main battle as I see it is over Gun Control. The President's Gun Proposals are out and have created a huge firestorm on the right. The most hillarious one of all was the "call to action" from Rand Paul's Political Action Committee on noting how Guns were going to be taken away. What is startling to note is that there are over 300 Million Guns in the United States--yet there seems to be a push by the right and the National Rifle Association to have even more guns. Assault Rifles seem to have been especially popular since the debate has raged on about stricter Gun Control. In light of the Sandy Hook massacre, change will occur.

Barack Obama is taking office as the World is ever more complex, dangerous and undergoing profound political change. Such political change continues to be compounded as climate change continues to be ever more front and center. 350.org just noted that Jakarta, the Capital of Indonesia, was drentched in Rain and buried in Water. Municipal authorities in Beijing and Tehran were forced to take drastic measures to protect their populations as pollution reached dangerous levels. 25 Million People live in those two cities. The fires in Australia raged on for weeks due to extreme tempreatures of almost 50 degress Celsius.

It is tough to be hopeful as the new year continues onward. But, there is no other choice...is there?

Also available @ http://www.outsiderviews.com
 

The Beauty of Life

My "year of the rainbow' has started a bit "tough".    I remain ever more hopeful as I saw Tavis Smiley' conversation about Poverty in America.    I remain hopeful because of the move to finally bring some sense to the culture of violence that is our society right now.   One of my students shared this from Mother Theresa which goes to the heart of Ethical Living and how we must all remember it.     There is a lot to indeed be thankful for:

“Life is an opportunity, benefit from it.

Life is beauty, admire it.

Life is a dream, realize it.

Life is a challenge, meet it.

Life is a duty, complete it.

Life is a game, play it.

Life is a promise, fulfill it.

Life is sorrow, overcome it.

Life is a song, sing it.

Life is a struggle, accept it.

Life is a tragedy, confront it.

Life is an adventure, dare it.

Life is luck, make it.

Life is too precious, do not destroy it.

Life is life, fight for it.”

- Mother Teresa

A "Thought 4 the Week"

How Timely!!!

 “ Above all, don't fear difficult moments. The best comes from them.”

 Rita Levi-Montalcini (1909–2012)
 Italian scientist, senator Nobel Prize winner 1

Happy New Year!!!

The New Year has started..and the World is ever more challenging as ever.    Although the US averted a "Fiscal Cliff", there are other battles ahead.  The Iran Question continues to be very much at the forefront...as the Monk Debate of 2012 showed:    
http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/Iran-s-Nuclear-Ambitions

Year in Review 2012 - Project Syndicate

It is bound to be a fun year--to say the least.

The Empty Pickle Jar

As the year 2012 comes to a close, I ran across this "oldie" but "goodie" from the folks @ Simple Truths.    A lot to remember for sure..

Happy New Year!!

The Empty Pickle Jar

Happy New Year!!!

As 2012 Enters the History Books......

As I write this, Washington seems to be in a state of paralysis on trying to solve the current fiscal dilemma before it.   It is tragic and sad at the same time to observe this.   There seems to be no one who really understands and cares about the man on Main Street.    It seems as if all in Washington are living up to what Gandhi warned us all about:

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When will we go beyond the narrow selfish interests and focus on the greater good?

Beyond that, of course, is how poignant was the Meet the Press Interview with President Obama.    The punditry seems to be of the view that nothing will be done on Gun Control as they are saying that things have to change due to certain realities we all agree with.      No one on the panel seemed to try and explain how having simply more guns makes American Society safer.  The  sheer lunacy of putting armed guards in Schools (aking to Air Marshalls on Air Planes) is just crazy.

Strangely, though, I remain optimstic as I wind down the year and gear up for 2013.    There are looming minefields to be navigated through for sure.   The need to be optimistic and hopeful is the norm.    I look forward to 2013 and the beginning of the "Year of the Rainbow".

Happy New Year!!!

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Personal Tidbits as 2012 draws to a close....

I have been trying to be optimistic as 2012 draws to a close.  There is not much to be hopeful for, though.

I just reviewed the latest from France24.    The outlook in France continues to be bleak and France is slated to be behind the UK in GDP for the first time.     The United States continues to be faced with the so-called "Fiscal Cliff".     There is supposedly a meeting later on Friday at the White House to discuss a potential compromise.   This is as the United States will hit its' official "borrowing limit" in a few months which may potentially mean another US Default.  The US went through this when the Republicans last went through the exercise.  Listening to the debates and the rationale is simply sad.   The American People seem to be "lost in the shuffle" in it all.

Beyond the Economic Debate before us, there is the debate over Guns.   The 2nd Amendment guarantees the right to bear arms.    What is unfortunate is that the National Rifle Association has used the Amendment to basically stop any kind of reasonable control over Gun Control by noting that it infringes about individual liberties.    The debate has been wide ranging now that the NRA has come out fighting after the NRA's CEO came out calling for Armed Guns in Schools.   Their latest public relations initiative is a media availability next week to explain their position.  They have also said that they will oppose any attempts to regulate guns and will not participate in the Panel launched by President Obama and chaired by Vice President Biden who has been mandated to come out with legislative proposals within the next 30 days.    The Gun Lobby, though, is too powerful . 

One very hopeful development occurred in Los Angeles.    The City of Los Angeles moved up its' Gun  buyback program.     It exceeded its' last full year--and one thing I found out was that Ralph's Super Market contributed all the Gift Cards for the Program.  Ralph's is a division of Kroger.  I am proud to say I have been a customer and this has reaffirmed my faith in their organization.  Ralph's is also quite engaged with local communities through its' support of schools.

In my daily "Virtual Facebook Rounds", I wrote about whether the Country has finally awaken to the danger of too many guns in response to a comment by a Friend.    This was as the Attorney General of Arizona came out with a proposal to arm teachers in classrooms:

Until the NRA continues to roam the halls of Congress and its' Amen Crowd continues to hide behind the 2nd Amendment, we will have a profound challenge. If I had not heard what the NRA CEO had actually said, I would have thought that somehow it was a story out of the ONION. We keep taking money out of schools, yet we somehow magically can find the money to put armed guards in schools. There are, by the way, School Resource Officers in many cities--includiing OC that I am sure Mike you are already aware of. As for the crackpot in AZ that Annahita Mahdavi noted in her thoughts, I really like to know what the AZ AG is smoking to see how more guns will actually help save lives..This is exactly akin to the MADD doctrine adopted during the Cold War--which was non sense then...we should call the doctrine that the NRA advocates to be so as well....I wonder, though, if I am missing something..and whether they're smarter than I am...one thing I know is this: The founders would be furious if they knew how that majestic document that is the US Constitution is being so savagely treated by the likes of the NRA and what Dr. Dabashi remarked as the corrupt band of politicians that serves at its' posse--epitomized by the crackpot who is the AZ Attorney General?

The debate  would surely not end tomorrow.   However, when I see Rocket launchers being turned in, there is time for change: 

The question is whether the courage is there or not. 

A Final Thought to Remember as 2012 draws 2 a close.....

 Speaks for itself...a simple manifesto to remember as 2012 is slowly drifting into the dustbins of history and 2013 is before us:

 

 

Simplicity, patience, compassion.
These three are your greatest treasures.
Simple in actions and thoughts,
you return to the source of being.
Patient with both friends and enemies,
you accord with the way things are.
Compassionate toward yourself,
you reconcile all beings in the world.

― Lao Tzu, Tao Te Ching

As 2012 Draws to A Close....

2012 is coming to a close.   I can't help but be sickened by what I heard today: 

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What I find disturbing is how he uses the "2nd Amendment" to justify his existence as an organization.   The more he talked, the more he dug himself a hole.    He called everyone a liar--and tries to justify his moral justification for   I cannot understand how somehow can justify the fact that there are over 297 Million Guns for 315 Million Americans.   I am so amused by how he claims to speak for the "common guy".        The people will also have their say as the debate over the future of guns in this country.    The NRA Chief is tone deaf and does not seem to understand.      There are questions about whether a weapons ban will work or not--but not doing anything is not the answer either.   With all due respect to Senator Graham, there is a sense of responsiblity that does not mean putting armed guards in schools.    Senator Graham only tells us what does not work.   35 states do not even cooperate with the FBI.    Over 30 states have laws allowing guns in public schools and houses of worships.    I  can't understand why more guns and more prisons is the answer or not.   

As American debates gun safety, there are more profound challenges around the World.    The Fiscal Cliff is the immediate challenge before the American People.  It is the same challenge before the World.     There is a need for leadership right now.   Senator Schummer talked about about a 400 Billion Dollar "difference" that seems to exist.   Yet, Senator Graham calls Obama a pathetic leader.   Senator Graham has nerve to judge The President when his record is pathetic at best.       Beyond the "fiscal cliff", there is the National Debt issue as well.   The President ran on his platform--and he won.   When would Republicans understand that and risk a US and Worldwide recession as the World awaits?    I also, quite frankly, was amazed by how Senator Graham was "troubled" by Senator Hagel's potential nomination as Secretary of Defense.    I can't understand how Republicans even claim to want to govern.   

As the story of 2012 has unfolded, there are some bigger challenges around the World that seems to not be as "prevalent" in the long-term debate.      Iraq is going up in Flames.    Within the past 24 hours, nine bodyguards of Iraq's Finance Minister were detained on charges of terrorism.     The Vice President of Iraq has been sentenced to death.     The secterian violence is even more violent than ever although I have also seen reports of business booming in Iraq.     Beyond Iraq, there is Syria.    An estimated 100 people lost their lives as they stood in line to get bread after a Government Air Strike.      The Taliban continue to hold sway over large parts of the Country as there has been subtle moves towards peace in Turkey.     Jordan, Kuwait, Libya and Saudi Arabia continue to be in a state of Political uncertainty that would have broad implications for the future.

Beyond some of the on-going issues, what has been discussed below is of profound concern.  This is something that is not discussed at all--the debate has been on the superficial.  All solutions seem to be focused on the tactical.  This is tough reading--and I have noted this by one keen observer:

US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles John Mauldin | Dec 21, 2012 Missed Last Week's Article? Read It Here Today’s OTB is not directly about the economy or investment, but rather about a key demographic shift that will certainly have a major effect on both. I have a somewhat different take on the shift than our author, my very-long-time friend Gary D. Halbert (founder of ProFutures and former business partner from the ’90s); and I will be writing about this next year. There is a significant transformation going on in my thinking about how the political world in the US (and, I suspect, much of Europe as well) impacts the economy. The real eye-opener here is Gary’s reporting of the role of singles, rather than what is happening with the birth rate and fertility rate, although those are important too. As a surging percentage of US voters, singles are a game changer. They see the world differently in terms of their own personal security and the future – or at least that is how they vote. To get a sense of how powerful the marriage effect is, not just for women but for men, too, look at the exit polls by marital status. Among non-married voters – people who are single and have never married, are living with a partner, or are divorced – Obama beat Romney 62-35. Among married voters Romney won the vote handily, 56-42. OK, we all kind of knew that singles as a group favored Obama. But by that much? Singles are a new and rapidly rising part of the population that has not been well accounted for demographically, and that is the real import of what Gary shows us. I can tell you how many women will be eligible to vote in 2030, for instance, but there is nothing in the birth rate to predict the number of singles we’ll have. That is shifting, and in terms of voting patterns that shift (at least so far) is large. This piece gives us quite a bit to think about as we contemplate how our entitlement programs and taxes will eventually settle out. The trends Gary describes are part and parcel of our national dysfunctionality. We want maximal healthcare and minimal taxes – at least on 98% of us. Healthcare benefits have to be paid for by someone; and that trade-off is going to be large in terms not just of taxes but also how capital formation, productivity, and employment are affected. It is hard to overstate the implications of how healthcare demographics will affect the economy. As I write this note, the hustle and bustle of Christmas shopping and planning are going on all around me. My family will celebrate Christmas together on the 26th, so I can have all my seven kids and their families in one place under my roof. I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a great New Year. I will be writing a short note for Thoughts from the Frontline this weekend, and then start to think about roasting a prime, rather than prime rates, for a few days. Your almost ready for Christmas analyst, John Mauldin, Editor Outside the Box JohnMauldin@2000wave.com December 18, 2012 US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles IN THIS ISSUE: 1.  US Birth Rate Falls to Record Low in 2011 2.  Birth Rate Needed to Maintain Current Population 3.  A Nation of Singles – Implications For the Future 4.  How Did We Become a Nation of Singles? 5.  Conclusions – How Do We Turn the Trend Around? Overview One of the issues I have been focused on for the last several years has been the trend in demographics in the US and in developed countries in general. Our populations are getting older – we all know that. But the reasons why our populations are getting older are not widely understood by many Americans. Those reasons include the falling birth rate, the falling fertility rate, the falling marriage rate and the explosion in singles – people who never marry. The US birth rate fell to a record low in 2011. The marriage rate is tumbling as well. And the number of single Americans is now at a record high. The implications of these developments are troubling, not only for the economy, but also for the investment markets and the continual expansion of the federal government.  Government debt has spiraled out of control in recent years, and the demographics suggest that this trend will continue as we care for an aging population. Today, we will look at some new information on demographic trends in the US and in the West in general that should concern you – and all Americans for that matter. This will be a continuing theme in my E-Letters in the months and years ahead. Let’s get started. US Birth Rate Falls to Record Low in 2011 The US birth rate plunged to a record low in recent years, with the decline being led by immigrant women hit hard by the recession, this according to a study released in late November by the Pew Research Center. A falling birth rate has major implications for the economy and our aging population, as I will discuss today. The overall US birth rate decreased by 8% between 2007 and 2010, with a much bigger drop of 14% among foreign-born immigrant women. The overall birth rate is now at its lowest level since reliable records have been kept, falling to 63.2 births per 1,000 women who are of childbearing age in 2011. That is down from 122.7 births at the peak in 1957 during the Baby Boom. The birth rate among foreign-born immigrant women, who have tended to have bigger families, has also been declining in recent decades, although more slowly, according to the Pew report. However, according to the report, the birth rate for immigrant womenplunged from 2007 to 2011. One of the most dramatic drops was among Mexican immigrants – down 23%. Side Note: Some people confuse the birth rate (number of births per 1,000 women) with the fertility rate. The fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime.  The fertility rate needed to maintain the current US population is 2.1 children born to women of child-bearing age. According to multiple studies, the US fertility rate among women is now only 1.9 children and falling. Most researchers attribute the drop in the birth rate in large part due to the severe recession in 2007-2009.The decline could have far-reaching implications for US economic and social policy. A continuing decrease could challenge long-held assumptions that previously rising birth rates among immigrants will help maintain the US population and create the taxpaying workforce needed to support the aging Baby-Boom generation. The fall didn’t occur because there are fewer immigrant women of childbearing age, but because of a change in their behavior, the Pew report noted, citing data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the US Census Bureau. The Pew report concluded that“the economic downturn seems to play a pretty large role in the drop in the fertility rate.” Although the declining US birth rate has not created the kind of stark imbalances found in graying countries such as Japan or Italy, it should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers, said Roberto Suro, a professor of public policy at the University of Southern California who studies trends in birth rates. He warned: “We’ve been assuming that when the Baby-Boomer population gets most expensive [to support], that there are going to be [enough] immigrants and their children who are going to be paying into [programs for the elderly], but in the wake of what’s happened in the last five years, we have to reexamine those assumptions.” Birth Rate Needed to Maintain Current Population As noted above, the US birth rate has been declining slowly over the last several decades.  Today, the US fertility rate needed to maintain the current US population is 2.1 children per woman during her lifetime. Yet it now stands at only 1.9 and is falling, so we’re going backward. The question is, why is the fertility rate falling faster in recent years, especially among immigrant women? As noted above, experts often point to the recession and financial crisis which unfolded in late 2007. The current falling fertility rate mirrors to some extent what has happened during other recessions. But in past recessions, the birth rate increased again once the economy recovered. So why is it not happening this time? There are numerous possible answers. Let’s start with the plunge in birth rates among immigrants. Almost half of all immigrants to the United States are of Hispanic origin. But in recent years, immigration from Mexico, the biggest contributing country for many years, has dried up. For the first time since the Great Depression, the net migration from Mexico to the US has been zero. Latino immigrants who have been here longer tend to adopt US attitudes and behavior, including having smaller families. Most experts agree that the decline in the birth rate among Mexican immigrants is probably so sharp because the rate was so high that there was more room for it to fall. The birth rate decline among Latino women in recent years may also be related to enhanced access to birth control, emergency contraception alternatives and better sex education in schools, according to Kimberly Inez McGuire, a senior policy analyst at the National Latina Institute for Reproductive Health. Fertility rates play a role, too. Nearly one in five American women now forgo having children altogether and, without babies, many consider marriage to be less of a necessity. People’s attitudes have followed the fertility rate. The Pew Research Center frequently surveys Americans about their thoughts on what makes a successful marriage. Between the 1990 survey and the 2007 survey, there were big increases in the percentages of people who said that sharing political or religious beliefs was “important to a good marriage.” In 2007, there was a 21% increase in people who said it was important for a marriage that the couple have “good housing.” Thirty-seven percent fewer people said that having children was important. The other indicator to decline in importance from 1990 to 2007 was faithfulness. In Europe, Asia, and most advanced countries, people are running away from marriage, children, and family life at an amazing rate. For example, 30% of German women today say that they do not intend to have children. In Japan in 1960, 20% of women between 25 and 29 had never married; today the number is more than 60%. It is estimated that up to 25% of all East Asian women will remain single up to age 50, and up to a third will remain childless. Whatever the reasons, the US birth rate has fallen below the level needed to keep our population steady, much less growing. This pattern is likely to continue lower, especially as immigrants adopt US cultural norms of fewer children and smaller families. This will have growing implications for the economy and the investment markets. Are we on the path to become Japan and Europe with even more aged populations? Demographers far and wide say yes. I first alerted my readers to this trend in 2007 when I reprinted a chilling article entitled “It’s the Demography Stupid.”  It is even more chilling now! A Nation of Singles – Implications For the Future What follows is a summary of a post-election demographic study that was sponsored by the Weekly Standard. Americans have been wedded to marriage for a very long time. Between 1910 and 1970, the “ever-married rate” – that is, the percentage of people who marry at some point in their lives – went as high as 98.3% and never dipped below 92.8%. But beginning in 1970, the ever-married number began a gradual decline so that by 2000 it stood at only 88.6%. Today, the numbers are even more striking according to the 2010 Census. Almost 24% of men, and 19% of women, between the ages of 35 and 44, have never been married. If we look at the people between 20 and 34 – the prime-childbearing years – the numbers are even more startling: 67% of men and 57% of women in this group have never been married. When you total it all up, over half of the voting-age population in America, and 40% of the people who actually showed up to vote this time around, are single. You don’t hear nearly as much about the rise of single voters, despite the fact that they represent a much more significant trend. Only a few political analysts have emphasized how important “singletons” were to President Obama’s reelection. Properly understood, there is far less of a “gender gap” in American politics than people think. Yes, President Obama won “women” by 11 points (55 to 44 percent). But Mitt Romney won married women by the exact same margin. To get a sense of how powerful the marriage effect is, not just for women but for men, too, look at the exit polls by marital status. Among non-married voters – people who are single and have never married, are living with a partner, or are divorced – Obama beat Romney 62-35. Among married voters Romney won the vote handily, 56-42. Far more significant than the gender gap is the “marriage gap.” And what was made clear in the recent election was that the ranks of unmarried women and men are now at historic highs, and are still increasing. This marriage gap and its implications for our political, economic, and cultural future ​is not well understood. What does this group look like? Geographically, they tend to live in cities. As urban density increases, marriage rates (and childbearing rates) fall in nearly a straight line. Politicos James Carville and Stanley Greenberg put together some very interesting data on singles. Of the 111 million single eligible voters, 53 million are women and 58 million are men. Only 5.7 million of these women are Hispanic and 9.7 million are African American.Nearly three-quarters of all single women are white. Singles broke decisively for Obama, no surprise there. Though his margins with them were lower than they were in 2008, he still won them handily: Obama was +16 among single men and +36 with single women. But the real news wasn’t how singles broke – it was that their share of the total vote increased by a whopping 6 percentage points. That 6 percentage point increase meant 7.6 million more single voters than in 2008. They provided Obama with a margin of 2.9 million votes, about two-thirds of his margin of victory. To put this in some perspective, the wave of Hispanic voters we’ve heard so much about increased its share of the total vote from 2008 to 2012 by only a single point to roughly 12.5 million voters. It makes you wonder how the Romney handlers missed that! How Did We Become a Nation of Singles? How did we get to an America where half of the adult population isn’t married and somewhere between 10% and 15% of the population don’t get married for the first time until they’re approaching retirement? Jonathan Last, who did the research and wrote the article for the Weekly Standard, explains this phenomenon as follows: It’s a complicated story involving, among other factors, the rise of almost-universal higher education, the delay of marriage, urbanization, the invention of no-fault divorce, the legitimization of cohabitation, the increasing cost of raising children, and the creation of a government entitlement system to do for the elderly childless what grown children did for their parents through the millennia. But all of these causes are particular. Looming beneath them are two deep shifts. The first is the waning of religion in American life. As Joel Kotkin notes in a recent report titled “The Rise of Post-Familialism,” one of the commonalities between all of the major world religions is that they elevate family and kinship to a central place in human existence. Secularism tends toward agnosticism about the family. This distinction has real-world consequences. Take any cohort of Americans—by race, income, education — and then sort them by religious belief. The more devout they are, the higher their rates of marriage and the more children they have. The second shift is the dismantling of the iron triangle of sex, marriage, and childbearing. Beginning in roughly 1970, the mastery of contraception decoupled sex from babymaking. And with that link broken, the connections between sex and marriage — and finally between marriage and childrearing — were severed, too. Where is this trend line headed? In a word, higher. There are no indicators to suggest when and where it will level off. Divorce rates have stabilized, but rates of cohabitation have continued to rise, leading many demographers to suspect that living together may be crowding out matrimony as a mode of family formation. And increasing levels of education continue to push the average age at first marriage higher. The question, then, is whether America will continue following its glidepath to the destination the rest of the First World is already nearing. Most experts believe that it will. As the Austrian demographer Wolfgang Lutz put it, once a society begins veering away from marriage and childbearing, it becomes a “self-reinforcing mechanism” in which the cult of the individual holds greater and greater allure. Jonathan Last continues: What then? Culturally speaking, it’s anybody’s guess. The more singletons we have, the more densely urban our living patterns are likely to be. Sociologist Eric Klinenberg believes that the masses of city-dwelling singles will sort themselves into “urban tribes,” based not on kinship, but rather on shared interests. The hipsters, the foodies, the dog people, and so on. Klinenberg teaches at NYU, so he would know. As a result, cities will gradually transform from centers of economic and cultural foment into what urban theorist Terry Nichols Clark calls “the city as entertainment machine.” The urban tribes may be insipid, but they’re reasonably benign. Kotkin sees larger cultural problems down the road. “[A] society that is increasingly single and childless is likely to be more concerned with serving current needs than addressing the future,” he writes. We could tilt more into a “now” society, geared towards consuming or recreating today, as opposed to nurturing and sacrificing for tomorrow. So what does this mean for the economy? The economic effects are similarly unclear. On the one hand, judging from the booming economic progress in highly single countries such as Singapore and Taiwan, singletons can work longer hours and move more easily for jobs. On that level a more single society could be good for the economy. But only for a period of time, as fewer babies are being born to replace them. And there’s another downside to this scenario of falling marriage rates and more singles in the workforce. Demographers have found that without the responsibility of families to provide for, unmarried American males have historically tended to drop out of the labor force prior to their normal retirement age, thus exacerbating recessionary tendencies in the economy. Not good. That’s because marriage, as an institution, is helpful to all involved. Survey after survey has shown that married people are happier, wealthier, and healthier than their single counterparts. All of the research suggests that having married parents dramatically improves the well-being of children, both in their youth and later as adults. As demographer Robert George put it after the election, limited government “cannot be maintained where the marriage culture collapses and families fail to form or easily dissolve. Where these things happen, the health, education, and welfare functions of the family will have to be undertaken by someone, or some institution, and that will sooner or later be the government.” Marriage is what made the West, and America in particular, so successful. George continues, “The two greatest institutions ever devised for lifting people out of poverty and enabling them to live in dignity are the [free] market economy and the institution of marriage. These institutions will, in the end, stand or fall together.” Conclusions – How Do We Turn the Trend Around? Over the last few decades, our culture has migrated toward tolerance. Tolerance of the decay of marriage, acceptance of divorce and cohabitation and even gay marriage in a growing number of states. This along with the trend toward having fewer children, for a variety of reasons, has put our nation at risk of a multi-decade decline in the population. The US birth rate has always declined during periods of recession. But the birth rate has always climbed to new highs after recessions – except this time. The US birth rate has continued to decline to a record low since the recession of 2007-2009. This is alarming. At the same time, the number of single Americans continues to climb to record highs. The rise in singles who do not reproduce is an equally troubling demographic. This suggests that the institution of marriage is in jeopardy for all the reasons discussed above. Somehow, we need to re-instill the importance of marriage in our culture. And sooner rather than later. That may not be a panacea for a rising birth rate, but it is a place to start. Marriage is an institution which ought to be celebrated, nurtured, and defended because its health is integral to the success of our culture. All of these issues noted today – the falling birth rate, fewer marriages, record number of singles, etc. – are very important developments for our society and cannot be adequately addressed in such a short space as this. There are also far-reaching implications for saving and investing as well. Thus, I will be writing more on these topics in the weeks and months to come. Best holiday wishes, Gary D. Halbert SPECIAL ARTICLES U.S. Birth Rate Falls to a Record Low http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/11/29/u-s-birth-rate-falls-to-a-record-low-decline-is-greatest-among-immigrants/ Marriage Rate Falls to Record Low http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2011/12/marriage-rate-falls-to-record-low-in-u-s-pew-says/

 I released his whole "letter" because it is the kind of issue that must be discussed.  The dissipation of faith and continued emphasis on the superficial is what I hope can change.   The idea of "outsiders" I began over 4 years ago was in that vain.   It was to have a broader view of the World.

As I look to to a new year with all its' possibilities  I was reminded of this admonition which I shared earlier with the folks in "Facebook World".   It is in that spirit that I look forward to the new year:

Consult not your fears, but your hopes and your dreams.

Think not about your frustrations, but about your unfulfilled potential.

Concern yourself not with what you tried and failed in,

but with what it is still possible for you to do.

- Pope John XXIII

Happy New Year!!!  I look forward to "seeing" everyone in the new year.
   

Remembering..........

An M-Thought 4 the Day: Top Tracks for Acoustic Alchemy (playlist)

The Need to Have Courage Here and Now

Today saw America coming together as it remembered the 26 beautiful souls who lost their lives in a senseless act of violence on Friday, December 14.    The stories of courage and sacrifice that I have seen have left me numb.    It also makes me proud to realize that there are such selfless individuals who give of themselves everyday and are willing to give their lives to protect the lives of others.    The 6 teachers who lost their lives will not be forgotten.   I do want to note that one Congressman came out stating that if the Teacher was armed, this would not have happened.   As I read that report, I did not know whether to cry or scream.  I have seen reporting of fringe elements reflecting upon this--but at least the National Rifle Association has had the decency to keep its' mouth shut.    

The President went to Newton, CT to speak for the nation.    His speech, in my view, was  probably one of his best speeches ever.   He spoke for a Nation that continues to come to grips with this senseless act of violence.     This speaks volumes in why we must change now:

 He also spoke for all of us when he noted that such actions must stop and must stop now.     I have continued to reflect upon it all day.    His eloquence speaks for itself..I continue to wonder if this can be the incident that finally wakes people up to lead the charge for transformation that is surely needed now so that those 26 Souls would not have died in vain:

President Obama’s full speech

On Sunday night, President Obama spoke at a vigil for those who died in the Newtown, Conn., tragic shooting at the Sandy Hook elementary school.

 

A Reminder....Very Powerful!!!!

Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.
- Thomas A. Edison

Personal Reflections on the Tragedy in Conneticuit

The past 24 hours have been among the hardest in America.     The lives of 26 people were cut tragically short when a gunman went into an Elementary School and shot them.   The debate in Social Media has been quite vibrant as people have expressed outrage over this.   It is one of the worst shootings in US History.

What I have found quite striking is how the National Rifle Association has stayed silent.     The National Rifle Association is the premier advocate for 2nd Amendment rights in the United States and no one dares to question them.     What is tragic is how they have hid behind the US Constitution to advocate Gun Ownership and advocate a sense of safety that in fact does not exist.      The statistics, though, are staggering:

As I have continued my "Virtual Rounds" in Facebook, I noticed that some of the pro-gun groups had made comments alluding to how it was the Media's Fault.   The following are excerpts of thoughts I shared on this:

The problem is that after this self-reflection, it will again drift away from the colletive mind....although we're still going to be faced with 200 deaths a week (as julien epstein noted on an appearance on MSNBC earlier)....which equates to 11,000 a yr...It starts with us as parents coaching our children...getting involved with our schools....promoting a sense of citizenship and responsiblity that insures that children realize that their future is not in having the "heads down"..but having their head up....it requires us to be more pro-active in the intercities and encourage the establishment of thosuands of "Home boy INdustries" to create a sense of hope...and many other simple steps that begins the transformational process..the qeustion is whether we have the courage and collective will as we focus on the superficial?

As for the National Rifle Association:

Isn't it strange that all the "AMEN CROWD" around the NRA have disappeared so far...but give 'em time...they'll rear their ugly head....I just was curious and "dropped by" their Website...and NOTHING!!!!  Wayne Le Pier, the head huncho had a commentary on Gun Laws in Virginia and how "right" they were...but give 'em time...I wonder who in the so-called Mainstream Media wil even dare to book 'em...they'll book losers like Ross Johnson, one of the NRA Senators who was one of the fools who rejected calls for Gun Control after Aurora.....

I was pleased to see the dispatch from the Capistrano Unified School: 

To:       The CUSD Community and Staff

Re:       Today’s Tragic Events in Connecticut

As you undoubtedly know, today, a school-related shooting in Connecticut resulted in the tragic loss of children and school staff. This message is sent on behalf of Board President John Alpay, and the entire Board of Trustees of the Capistrano Unified School District, to express their deepest sympathy to everyone impacted by these events.

Parents may be interested in supportive information on how to discuss tragic events like these with their children. Such resources are available at the following website:        

                                                http://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/ss/cp/tragedy.asp.

A natural response to school tragedies is an increased concern for the safety of one’s own family.  You should know that the Capistrano Unified School District works collaboratively with the Orange County Sheriff’s Department, and other agencies, to protect our students, staff, and school communities.

Thank you,

Joseph M. Farley
Superintendent

I also was pleased to see this outreach from the Principal of the Middle School my son attends: 

As you may have already heard there was a tragic shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut.  This news is heartbreaking.   My deepest sympathies go out to the families and the community impacted by this senseless crime against children. 

While one can never fully prepare for a tragedy of this magnitude, I would like to assure you that we have an effective school safety plan in place at AVMS. We practice evacuation and lockdown drills on a regular basis.  We constantly review and revise procedures to improve safety and procedures.  We work closely with the Sheriff’s Department, local Fire Department, and District first response teams.   In addition, our PTSA budgets money each year towards updating safety materials and supplies.

One of our most important safety procedures is ensuring all visitors check-in the front office.  I understand that checking-in the front office can be inconvenient; however, this simple procedure allows us to know who is on our campus and the purpose of their visit.  The CUSD volunteer clearance program ensures that any adult working on campus or directly with our child in a classroom has had a background check and is not a safety concern. 

At AVMS, we have a highly visible staff that knows our students and parents well.  We are constantly vigilant of our surroundings and aware of who is on our campus.  We employ four campus supervisors who are constantly walking the campus, actively supervising, and reporting any suspicious activity.  We are also fortunate to have parents and a community that cares for the wellbeing of our school and let us know of any suspicious activities around the campus. 

We have systems in place to communicate quickly in case of an emergency, such as -Listserv, Schoolloop, School Messenger, or website, etc. It is critical for parents to maintain current phone numbers and addresses.  Please review your family information through the Parent Portal at the District websitehttp://capousd.ca.schoolloop.com/.

As parents you may be interested in supportive information on how to discuss tragic events like this with your children. Such resources are available at the following website http://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/ss/cp/tragedy.asp.

Our thoughts go out to the Sandy Hook community.  

I have continued to wonder whether we will have the courage to transform our thinking not just in America--but around the World.

As the Journey Continues...Remembering....

There is hope after despair and many suns after darkness.

~ Rumi

Thought 4 the Week

To love. To be loved.
To never forget your own insignificance.
To never get used to the unspeakable violence
and the vulgar disparity of life around you.
To seek joy in the saddest places.
To pursue beauty to its lair.
To never simplify what is complicated
or complicate what is simple.
To respect strength, never power.
Above all, to watch. To try to understand.
To never look away. And never, never, to forget.
- Arundhati Roy

A "Unique Day" Indeed....Happy 12/12/12 :-)

Today is one of those unique days in the World. A "Facebook Friend" released this and I wanted to keep it for posterity sake. Happy 12/12/12 Day..May everyone's wishes come through:

Happy Human Rights Day

We must never lose our voice: