As I work to "wind down" the Quarter, it has been a very interesting and challenging one.
It was five years ago this month that what has ultimately evolved into "Outsiders" now residing @ http://www.outsiderviews.com was launched. I decided to go dark to think about the second half of the year. But the first six months of the year has been quite remarkable.
Throughout the year, I wrote about Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the BRICS countries. As I decided to go "dark", I saw a change of Government in Australia which was quite shocking. I wrote about it when I noted that "what goes around, comes around". Kevin Rudd made some bold moves when he was first Prime Minister. I wonder if he's able to pull it off a second time to avoid a defeat at the Polls. The United States Supreme Court also made history with the decisions it handed down both on Voting Rights and the rights of same sex couples. It has been, needless to say, quite fun to be "Witness to History".
As I finish this "final retrospective" for the quarter, I was also listening to an interview with Winnie Mandela, the former wife of Nelson Mandela. Madiba and his family has been in my thoughts and prayers and his moral courage is an inspiration to all. One of his key thoughts has continued to inspire me that I wanted to end this retrospective on:
The greatest glory in living lies not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.
As I am gearing up for the new week, I was making the "rounds" in the World Town Square, "Facebook". I was pleased to see reports that Nasrin Soutodeh, the Iranain Lawyer and Human Rights Activist, was free, caught up w/some deal friends and shared thoughts and ideas throughout. But, when I saw this, I was speechless. May we continue to be blessed with such wisdom...
I begin this "World This Week" here in "outsiders" with Brazil.
Brazil is one of the so-called BRICS that also constitutes Russia, India, China and South Africa. The countries as a group are beginning to assert themselves in a number of ways including looking at ideas to develop a National Development Bank and to gradually move away from the Dollar. It is so interesting how the BRICS have been subject to internal challenges that are unprecedented.
The protests in Brazil began with transport fee raises in Sao Paolo and Rio. This has mushroomed into a broad protest movement to transform Brazil and to force the Government's hands. It is not about the "20 cents" anymore:
As the protests continued, I ran across this which really captured the essence of the protest movement and answered the question:
Why am I not going to the World Cup? The Brazilian President seems to have understood and heard the street. But, the question is whether it is going to be enough:
It is fascinating to watch.
Beyond Brazil, there is also the aftermath of the Snowden Matter and the leaks that appeared on the Guardian Magazine. As I write this, he is in Moscow and apparently is gearing up to go to Ecuador. When I saw the reports of him leaving Hong Kong, I remembered the old film, "catch me if you can", since the United States Government is hot and heavy after him as he's been charged with espionage. It appears that Julian Assange has been the crucial player in this as he continues staying at the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. In the meantime, leaks are continuing. Not withstanding the views of what Snowden has done, the need for where freedom stops and safety begins is a debate that is being held --and it is a necessary debate. It looks like it will be Ecuador. The US Government has revoked Snowden's passport. I would think that going to Ecuador will not present a major problem.
As I assess the World this week, the continued challenge of climate change is here and cannot be ignored. As I write this, India is in morning as over 6500 people have died as a result of monsoon rains that have destroyed many villages. Earlier I saw images of the capital of Alberta in Canada being under water as a result of rivers breaking their banks. Alberta, for the record, is the capital of Tar Sands that has contributed so much to Canada's Economic Development. [LINK=http://www.takepart.com/photos/10-inspiring-climate-leaders/]What is so fascinating, though, is to see those on the front lines who are continuing their efforts to be at the forefront of change besides the challenges being faced today.[/LINK].
In assessing the World over the past seven days, I was quite amazed to see this from the Middle East:
This was an image published in Al-Monitor based on a story from Reuters that depicted two Kurdish women who have taken up arms as they stood guard along a street in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood on June 19, 2013.. This is as Syrian Rebels have apparently received new arms and have been gearing up for an major attack on the Syrian Air Force base in Aleppo.
What is happening in Syria has a spillover effect that is becoming increasingly alarming. Lebanese soldiers were killed in clashes with a Sunni Cleric who opposes Hezbollah. But, this same cleric has called for defections by Sunni Members of the Lebanese Army. As Rullah Amin of Al Jazeera pointed out in her most reporting from Beirut, The Army is the only institution that actually is still working in Lebanon. The War in Syria is having a profound effect in Lebanon and how it impacts is will present a profound challenge going forward.
As Syria is in turmoil, Turkey is in the midst of protests, Iraq's sectarian violence continues to escalate and Kuwait's political crisis deepens, there is Iran. I commented earlier about to expect the unexpected. 18 Million People voted for change--not necessarily for Hassan Rowhani but to send a clear and convincing voice that the current economic stagnation prevalent brought about by increased international sanctions cannot be sustained. I reviewed reports that Iran's oil exports were only 700,000 barrels a day that has continued to compound Iran's current difficulties. Rowhani has begun the transition process as the Guardian Council has certified his election and he's begun his round of consultations. A sign of the confidence has been a strengthening of the Rial. One sign of change I have seen is a direct attack on the State-Owned news agency attacking the personal representative of the Supreme Leader and the Editor a major Government-Owned Paper: Kayhan. The editorial said that "old thinking" epitomized by this editor had to change. I view it as another indication of an opening. If anyone is able to work on a transformation, it is him--the consummate insider who understands the World.
I also saw the Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi's comments about her hope that if President-Elect Rowhani is able to exercise the full spectre of rights accorded him under the Islamic Constitution, it can potentially represent a new era for human rights especially after the past numbers of years.
As the wave of change sweeps the Middle East, Egypt continues through ever more. Mohammad Mosri's one year in office is coming up--and it has been quite a year. There have been many disappointments. One of the most disappointing moves, in my view, was when the Government arrested the Arab World's Jon Stewart, Basem Youssef, for insulting the President. I was so thrilled to see Jon Stewart join his "brother in arm" as they discussed their views--and it is one of the best 20 minutes of television out there today:
Never a dull moment for sure..as we bid farewell to June 2013 and continue to reflect upon our World....
Also released to http://www.outsiderviews.com, June 2013
Just like all around the World, I continue to be fascinated by the raising of people's voices in Brazil, Turkey and indeed, Iran. All around the World, people seem to want to demand more and understand that the status quo is not acceptable anymore. I was reflecting upon this as I assessed the aftermath of the defeat of the Farm Bill in the United States House of Representatives and how the Republicans were so adamant about taking more out of the meager support already extended under the so-called SNAP program. I could not help but wonder if they wonder what is going on and how "ordinary faces" are actually dealing with the daily challenges of trying to eat. A lot to reflect upon...as I remember the admonition at hand:
We should never forget that after every night, there is a dawn. We should never lose our optimistic faith.— Amma
..and as I reflected upon this admonition which was crucial for all around the World to remember--including our leaders:
After the longest time, I watched the Jazz Singer again. For those who are film junkies (like me) this is a "remake" of an original. It was, in my view, a beautifully written story about tradition, love, redemption, hope and forgiveness--and the need to overcome. For me, personally, it brought back so many beautiful memories. As I remembered, I took comfort in some of the "thoughts for the day" about how one must go on :
Mistakes are the portals of discovery.
- James Joyce
He who spends time regretting the past,
loses the present and risks the future.
- Quevedo
A man can fail many times, but he isn't a failure
until he begins to blame somebody else.
- John Burroughs
If you wait to do everything until you're sure it's right,
I had a chance to watch two old but beautiful movies: Frankie & Johnnie & Fools Rush In. It all had to do with the story of "ordinary faces" who came to realize finally what they were blessed with despite challenges they faced. It reminded me of the Lao Tzu admonition above about how blessed one should be with what one has--even if one has nothing.
Despite all the challenges, I count my blessings every millisecond of every life. Whether it has been those friends who have graced me with their visits and views here in "ordinary faces" or other sites I have either directly launched or contributed to, my family, friends and all that I have been given--it is just wonderful. My only gift is to wish all this wonderful Irish Blessing:
May the road rise up to meet you, may the wind be ever at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face and the rain fall softly on your fields.
And until we meet again, May God hold you in the hollow of his hand.
Iran confounded the skeptics. It was just beautiful to see the scenes as people went to the polls and waited for hours on end to cast their ballot. I was constantly monitoring the process throughout election day as the Ministry of the Interior extended voting hours and granted discretion to Governors throughout the 31 Provinces as they determined when to close the polls. As someone who had served in elections in the United States, I was quite hopeful with everything that I saw. The images as reported by Al Jazeera was just beautiful to see as the reporting continued to come in throughout election day and beyond.
When the counting began, it was clearly methodical. When the Minister of the Interior finally came out on June 15 and announced the results, it was quite a scene of jubilation throughout the Country. Facebook was the key conduit for telling the World the true feelings of Iranians. Iranians sang and chanted slogans remembering the key opposition leaders, Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karboui and chanted how they got the vote back. They also remembered one of the young martyrs who fell during the 2009 elections as they chanted, "...oh brother martyr, we got your vote back". It was a beautiful scene indeed. ..and they promised four years ago they would....a beautiful scene indeed....:-). It was moving when the mother of one of those Martyrs noted how she was so grateful that her son, Sohrab, was not forgotten and her sacrifice for the sake of freedom and Democracy was not in vain.
I knew this time would be different when Khameini said that he had only one vote. What I also found even more striking was his acknowledgement during his last speech before the vote that there are those who oppose the Islamic Republic, but urged them to vote. Those two statements, in my view, were an acknowledgement that some incremental change must be made. As the reformists gathered around Rouhani, Khatami in his statement noted this. the question is whether the incremental change will be enough or not...and will Rouhani be given a free hand--if Jack Straw's comments on the nuclear question (and Khameini's own praise is any indication), it seems as if he at least can make strides. During the campaign, what I found especially striking was how he noted that he was a "lawyer" and not a "colonel" and did not think like a Military Man. Although I had reservations about whether the armed forces will support him, the support by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp was also significant. Although Mr. Khatami made some profound mistakes during his tenure, the people had a sense of hope. The sense of hope had dissipated during A-Jad's tenure. A-Jad's sheer incompetence caused a crisis of legitimacy for the system itself. The leadership, in my view, seems to realize it. Janati, the head of the Guardian Council, remained quiet. It was the spokesman for the Guardian Council who spoke on behalf of it. It was 4 years ago that Janati who came out 4 hours later and said A-Jad won. I had written here repeatedly how this was impossible and how the election was stolen.
The reporting I reviewed by the leading International papers including the Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times and the Christian Science Monitkor reflected a sense of change that was in the air. What must be understood, though, is that the new President-Elect is a product of the Islamic System. However, he understands what needs to be done and his first speech where he said that he would celebrate his win the day when everyone has a job, when everyone has an opportunity to grow and prosper and when Iran takes its' rightful place around the World. 18 Million Voters spoke up in a strong voice that they wanted change. They said that what happened up to now could not possibly be sustained. It seems that a sense of faith must be placed in the 18 Million People who sent as strong as voice as they could. I
The World has been expressing their views--and the general consensus has been a welcome one--including a cautious welcome by the United States. The only one who argued against wishful thinking was the Israeli Prime Minister. Just like Morsi in Egypt, he's apparently trying to continue to divert attention away from his domestic challenges by again throwing the "bogeyman" into the Mix: Iran. Hopefully cooler heads will continue to prevail. The Israeli Prime Minister has said that Israel's stance will not change. Someone has to ask the Israeli Prime Minister: Does he respect Democracy or not?
As I was was assessing the Iranian Elections, some of the analysts continued to question whether the election would be allowed to stand. Many had anointed the current Nuclear Negotiator, Saeed Jallili as the President. Many, to say the least, were confounded. The new Iranian President-Elect has met with the Supreme Leader and the Speaker of Parliament. He will be taking office within the next thirty days. He has his work cut out for him and has a full inbox to deal with the Economic Collapse, the fate of Political Prisoners (including the leaders of the Green Movement) along with beginning the process of a rapprochement with the World. As the new Iranian Government is formed, I will continue to comment on it here in "Outsiders".
As Iran enters a new era, I wanted to leave all with this "thought" from the Sufi Poet Rumi that epitomizes what Iranians did on June 14--it is telling:
