A Daily "Thought"

7/18/2015

Notations For the Week-End: On #IranTalks, the Perilous #Vote4Peace & the Latest From the Middle East



The Economist's KAL "chimed" in on the new Agreement this week.   Beyond "KAL", though, The fast and furious debate on the Iran Deal continues throughout the US Political Scene. 

 Most Republican Presidential Candidates have come out in strong opposition to the deal--vowing to rescind the deal on day 1.    In contrast, Jeb Bush noted that he would not rescind it because he noted that he will not have his National Security Team in place and he had to make an assessment before making any decisions.   He also, interestingly enough, did not criticize the President for negotiating with Iran--he said he would have negotiated harder.   

Beyond the US Political Scene (which is vibrant especially after Donald Trump's latest tirade regarding Senator McCain which we hope to release a "Notation" soon), there is also the opposition that is spearheaded by +AIPAC (The American Israeli Public Affairs Committee): 


They have a budget of $ 20 Million to initiate a campaign against the deal.   This is as +J Street has also begun a targeted multi-million campaign as well.      Our team continued to assess the JINSA view that was outlined in their conference call on Friday July 17 led by their CEO and chief analyst.   The JINSA CEO had also released an editorial that was published on +The Weekly Standard , the publication led by Bill Kristol that has been at the forefront of opposition to the policies of the Obama Adminstration.     What was underscored consistently by the JINSA team was how the deal was the "Biggest Mistakes for US National Security" and a "Huge Blunder" with Surprises that came out.  The technical analysis was somewhat positive in addressing the 4 Pathways to a Bomb but were also not enthusiastic about the milestones and used the "false dichotomy " in addressing the roadmap for sanctions to be relieved.

The JINSA team went on to discuss Iran's assets.    They were  quite taken aback by the $ 140 Billion in windfall Iran will receive within 6 Months.  What was not made clear that the $ 140 Billion is Iran's Money.    They also noted that Iran's Ballistic Missile Capability was not addressed and how It was in Iran's DNA to cheat.    What was also quite interesting was how they were dismissive of the Administration View and was looking for a long-term strategy--looking for a Republican President that  would rescind the deal.   When the "God Father" analogy was cited during this briefing, it underscored how dismissive they truly were--this is as the same debate is continuing in Tehran.   The Iranian Supreme Leader (Supreme Guide), Ayatollah Khameini, spoke on the occasion of Eid and reiterated his support and call for full Unity--while underscoring his deep mistrust of the United States.    

As the #Vote4Peace march is continuing worldwide, this published by the Heritage Foundation's "Daily Signal" was also quite notable:  

Commentary: This deliberate effort by the president to gut the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act is disgraceful.
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The word  "disgraceful" explains the entire view by the entire Conservative Establishment.     As we've noted in our Notations on this, the UN is slated to vote on this Monday and all indications are that it will pass.  This is as The Economist Reminded The World This Week that it is better than the alternative in this cover:



As this debate enuses, Iraq and Syria continue to burn.   As we went to "press", we received shocking news from another bombing in Iraq during Eid Celebrations that resulted in 120 People having lost their lives.    Algeria saw an Army Convoy ambushed with 11 soldiers killed.   Egypt saw terrorists who claim to be  Islamists attack Army Posts yet again.    Saudi Arabia is in the midst of a major security crackdown in the aftermath of the car bomb in Riyadh--the Capital.    It announced 451 People have been arrested...

Truly Challenging Times....
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