A Daily "Thought"

10/28/2012

A "Broad Brush" of the World as the US Elections is Before Us

Source: http://www.outsiderviews.com/a-very-interesting-few-weeksand-an-anxious-9-days-ahead/

In 9 Days, the US will be going to the polls.     It is going to be pivotal in many respects despite some arguments about the United States losing its' influence.   

As November 6 looms closer and closer, Mother Nature has reminded us how powerful she is and how the best laid plans are laid waste.     The October surprise is "Hurricane Sandy".   The President has cancelled campaign events to be in Washington monitoring the situation.  He has promised a big response to the aftermath of the Hurricane.    New York is shutting down its' public transport system and evacuations have been ordered across the Atlantic Coast in the United States.     I can't help but wonder if such events will serve as a wake-up call to realize how sick Mother Earth is and how we should muster the courage to deal with it. 

This is just a "sampling of the challenges being faced by our World right now:

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We also need to understand that the time to save the World is rapidly closing:

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As I have been assessing the path and the aftermath of the Hurricane, I was particularly amused by an interview on CNN with the editor of the Hill newspaper in the United States.   AB Stoddard, the editor, noted how support for the President is "soft" and how people will blame the President if the recovery from Sandy is not fast enough and how they will continue to stay in the dark.     Barack Obama, though, made the rounds of major Media outlets to show his "face" and make his case.    The rounds included MTV, Nickelodeon, The Daily Show w/Jon Stewart and the tonight show with Jay Leno.    What I found disappointing was that Governor Romney did not find the time to join the kids on Nickelodeon.    Apparently he did not have the time.   Governor Romney did find the time to make another speech about change though.  This is as I had a chance to again review his 5 point plan (available @ http://www.mittromney.com) that pointed out the challenges and the misconceptions by the Obama Administration.  But the first 4 pages of the overview  reflect their view of the so-called "mistakes" of the Obama Administration that is riddled with errors.   I also find the credibility of the lead author, Glen Hubbard, to be suspect at best since he was at the helm of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Bush Administration.   There is also general consensus that their plan's numbers just do not add up.    There is also the full "plan" that says nothing about what he plans to do to replace Obamacare.     The idea that somehow over 30 Million People will lose coverage is something that he has not fully explained and how the so-called polls continue to be so close is something that I find very interesting.      What I would have hoped was to have some of the elements of the plan amended to reflect current developments.    What Mr. Romney also conveniently neglected to mention was the fact that the Congress made it a point to block the President of the United States at every turn.    Legislation was derailed, appointments were delayed and judge ships were increasingly delayed.    This is as fools like Richard Murdouch and Todd Akin continue to push their own sense of morality and view of life as doctrine.

Beyond the political scene itself,  what  I find disturbing is the amount of money spent on the Presidential Campaign.  The figures I have seen show a "2 Billion Dollar" price tag.    I view it as a waste of money.    Beyond the cost itself, there is the punditry class continuously making pronouncements about the state of the race.    There have been so many polls out there--now there is Poll of Polls that Real Clear Politics and CNN have laid out.    This is what Real Clear Politics shows as of today:

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[B][CENTER]Election 2012     Obama     Romney     Spread
RCP National Average     46.8     47.7     Romney  0.9
Favorable Ratings      4.5     6.5     Romney  2.0
Intrade Odds     63.0     37.3    
Electoral College     Obama     Romney     Spread
RCP Electoral Map     201     191     Obama  10
No Toss Up States     290     248     Obama  42
Battlegrounds 1 2     Obama     Romney     Spread
Ohio    48.2    46.3    Obama  1.9
Florida    47.1    48.9    Romney  1.8
Virginia    47.8    47.8    Tie
New Hampshire    48.6    47.2    Obama  1.4
Colorado    47.8    47.8    Tie
Iowa    49.0    46.7    Obama  2.3
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What I find interesting about this one is that it "negates" what Nate Silver of the New York Times does almost daily.   What he forecasts is that Barack Obama will win the Presidency with almost 296 Electoral Votes with about a 72% chance vs. 245 Electoral Votes at a 28% chance of winning the election.    I viewed this "Snapshot" to be crucial as election day looms because I would be curious to see how right organizations like Gallup, Rasmuseen, Public Policy, Wall Street Journal and others have been in their forecasting.    

Beyond the US Elections, there are other pivotal events going on around the World.   The Indian Prime Minister has just done a major reshuffle of his Cabinet.   China's National People's Congress is beginning a  very crucial session as the new leadership sets to take over.   I was particularly struck by the latest Economist Magazine as I noted how the man slated to take over China must change China.     China has evolved--but how it deals with the new challenges remains ever more a problem for the new leadership
In Nigeria, a suicide bomber rammed a Catholic Church service and resulted in people being killed.   What I was very gratified to see, though, was the awarding of the Sakharov Prize by the European Union to two imprisoned Iranian dissidents, Nasrin Soutoudeh and Jafar Panahi.     It shows that such brave souls who struggle for the simple dignities of life are not forgotten.    Syria, in the meantime, continues to burn.     Syria was supposed to be observing a cease fire for a major Muslim Holiday.    Government Troops have been bombing suburbs of the Capital.  This is as Assad was shown attending prayers during Eid Celebrations.

I have noted that in my view, the US elections is Barack Obama's to lose. The first results will begin coming in around 5 PM Pacific Time/8 PM EST as the first polls close on the East Coast of the United States.  This is as California and the Western States will continue voting.    Many states have also been voting early as well.    November 6 will determine the course that the US and the World will follow for the next four years and beyond.

The Whole World will await the verdict of the American People.    I look forward to assessing the aftermath and the road map ahead on November 7.
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