By now, there is a general consensus that Oil is running out. There is an interesting book that debunks one of the central tenants of U.S. Policy: reliance of Saudi Arabia. I remember the late Claiborne Pell when he questioned Saudi Arabia and as to why we worked to support the land of 2000 princes. But, we have more fundamental challenges to understand. Simmons, in his book, casts doubt on the long term reliability of Saudi Arabia. Here is the amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=The+coming+saudi+oil+shock.
This is another painful discussion that we will need to have.